Buying gold now, a good idea?
Asmodeus asked:
Fundamental analysis recently suggests that buying now in bulk is a good idea. The current spot price is 811$, what do you think will be in the long term, as of christmas 2009? I suppose a risk free rate of 8% at least, which is pretty decent. Probably even 10% risk free rate for the upcoming year. Obviously, using 2:1 leverage is too risky in the long run, assuming the gold deviations recently. The Kelly critetion is useless in the long term in my opinion and as well the technical analisys. You can however, use the Kelly criterion for daily gold trading with usually bullish behavior and expect a risk free rate of 20%, which is too nice, to say the least.
Fundamental analysis recently suggests that buying now in bulk is a good idea. The current spot price is 811$, what do you think will be in the long term, as of christmas 2009? I suppose a risk free rate of 8% at least, which is pretty decent. Probably even 10% risk free rate for the upcoming year. Obviously, using 2:1 leverage is too risky in the long run, assuming the gold deviations recently. The Kelly critetion is useless in the long term in my opinion and as well the technical analisys. You can however, use the Kelly criterion for daily gold trading with usually bullish behavior and expect a risk free rate of 20%, which is too nice, to say the least.
Thanks…
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