Gold ETF Trading – The Gold ETF Experience
GLD Gold ETF - Taking advantage of the gold market using the GLD exchange traded fund to generate consistent profits in any market condition.
As I mentioned before, the past 5 months have been very frustrating for most traders as we are stuck in this sideways price action. I also noted that August to December is generally the stronger months for gold. Although gold has been under selling pressure during the last 4 weeks I think there is light at the end of the tunnel. It’s usually the darkest before dawn, but there are some hurtles for gold to over come before we are in the clear which I explain below.
1 – The Gold Mining Stocks Index
An 10 year chart with a cup and handle pattern complete with a breakout. Gold mining stocks have continued to collapse below their support level. This does not mean gold is going to follow but it is a red flag which needs to be noted for future long entry points. Gold mining stocks in general are seen as volatile and high risk types of investments so I understand why investors are unloading their positions to lock in profits. Gold mining stocks are pushed below long term support level.
2 – Gold Stocks Index
An 8yr chart of the price action of gold stocks and you can see that they are currently testing long term support levels. If this monthly bar closes below this trend line then long term investors should be sitting in cash until we have a new opportunity to enter long or short. The HUI generally makes the move before the price of gold so I follow the HUI in all time frames. The HUI is testing long term support.
3 – Performance Chart (Gold Stocks vs Price of Gold)
The past 2 years, from 2006 to present gold stocks have slowly been underperforming the price of gold. This is generally not a good thing to see if we want higher prices for gold. But the good news is that gold stocks appear to be reaching levels at which new rallies have started. Gold stocks under performing the price of gold but near support.
4 – Daily HUI Chart
I follow the HUI like a hawk as it fine tunes my entry and exit point for trading GLD, DGP and DZZ funds. Last month the HUI made a lower high and a lower low which is a red flag. While I don’t predict prices I am thinking these lower prices for gold stocks are just panic sellers over extending a sell off. I would really like to see an August rally kick into place. The HUI makes a lower high and lower low on the daily chart.
5 – GLD Gold ETF Chart
While gold stocks have been selling down, gold has so far been able to hold some ground. As you can see in the chart below the last three months gold has made higher highs, and higher lows. Currently gold is testing Major Support at the 200 EMA. Gold ETF GLD at long term support still holding its ground.
Conclusion:
My analysis of gold above explains that gold stocks and indexes are oversold and are at major support levels. Thus an August rally is not out of the picture and we could have some favorable setups in the near future. I would prefer higher prices, but in the end movement is movement and we can profit in either direction evenly.
GLD gold etf trading for me is the most accurate trading vehicle I have come across. I have been using my proven trading model which avoids the price gaps and keeps risk under 3% for each trade. GLD makes it simple to profit from the markets using a proven trading model for trading long and short term gold setups in all market conditions (bull, bear, and sideways).
My focus for short term trading is simple. Wait for a breakout which satisfies my trading model, enter the trade and then exit 50% of position on the first sign of weakness. Exit second half on a trend line break. My goal for GLD ETF is 2-5% and we are in trades for 2-10 days unless prices continue to run. I generally have 10-20 trades per year with gold.
This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.
Chris Vermeulen is a veteran trader of gold and oil who makes his methods and insights available to others via his website at The Gold and Oil Guy Vermeulen’s strategy is clear and simple to learn and use. “My strategy makes your trades extremely accurate with very little downside risk,” he said. He provides traders with unparalleled gold and oil trading analysis, signals and 24/7 trading email support.
Gold Investment Fundamentals and the Transfer of Capital
The Secular Bull Market in Gold Investments corresponds directly to the Secular Bear Market in Financials. We explain why this trend will continue and why a short-term buying opportunity in Gold presents itself.
Central Banks are in all sorts of a pickle.
With overwhelming evidence that the global economy is slumping badly:
* UK Retail Sales see Worst Slump in 20 Years
* Business confidence in Germany is at lowest level in 2 years
* New Zealand’s central bank cutting interest rates saying slowing economic growth will curb inflation.
* Japanese exports decreasing YoY, and imports climbing on record Oil prices.
* US unemployment at 4-year highs
The knee jerk reaction by central banks is to man the printing presses and hit the accelerator. And whilst this medicine has worked well over the last 25 years, Central Banks are now hitting a brick wall that they haven�t encountered since pre-Keynesian 1930s.
Freshly minted fiat currency is falling into the hands of a crippled banking sector with little capital, ability or desire to carry out the multiplier effect and make loans to real people in the real economy. In a debt laden global economy with no reverse gear this headwind is possibly the biggest threat the Federal Reserve and its ilk aka the establishment have ever faced in carrying out monetary policy
Point #1 � Gold investors are well aware of the risks inherent in the current financial system.
The beauty of capitalism and the associated free movement of capital is that smaller more focused entities aka Hedge & Private Equity funds can and are rapidly moving into long held banking preserves.
* Direct lending to mid and small cap entities is now a well worn hedge fund territory.
* Extracting value through Shareholder activism.
* A much larger pool of capital available for short selling.
* Private Equity funds increase investment time horizons.
Highly secretive and operating out of non-transparent domiciles these entities are by and large out of the reach of the central banking system.
Point #2 � Hedge Funds and Private Equity Funds do not benefit from Fed handouts and would be better served by a currency that acts as a stable store of wealth � Gold!
The transfer of the financial system is akin to the explosion of information on the internet. The players that used to have a monopoly on information become less effective. There will be winners and there will be losers. But right now a bet on Gold Investments like Gold Stocks and Gold ETFs is a bet against the Establishment and the out-dated mega-banking system.
Slower growth will continue to cause problems for financials as bad debts soar, and as a result Gold investments will continue to propel higher in its multi-year Secular trend.
The above trend stretched too far technically over the last 3-months and there has had a rapid reversal over the last 2 weeks. This is a technical pullback only and the above fundamentals have not changed. There�s more to come in this fundamental story and Gold investments (we use GLD gold Exchange Traded Fund) and we could be getting close to another buying point for gold soon.
Gold Investment GLD Fund Prices - $85 is strong support as a confluence of lateral support and the 50-week Moving Average converge. Its just a matter of time before we have another entry point to add to our positions and or make another profitable gold investment.
By Chris Vermeulen
chris (AT) thegoldandoilguy.com
Chris Vermeulen is a veteran trader of gold and oil who makes his methods and insights available to others via his website at The Gold and Oil Guy Vermeulen’s strategy is clear and simple to learn and use. “My strategy makes your trades extremely accurate with very little downside risk,” he said. He provides traders with unparalleled gold and oil trading analysis, signals and 24/7 trading email support.
Welcome to the NEW Trade Gold With The GLD ETF Blog
Welcome to the relaunch of the Trade The Gold With The GLD ETF Blog and website. We have decided to remake the website with a WordPress Blog instead of the normal static html site. This will make it easier for us to update and manage the site and allow us to provide the most up to date information to our readers.
We are going to discuss how to trade stocks and options on Gold by trading the GLD. The GLD in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the price of gold futures. This allows the normal investor to trade gold without having to trade gold commodity futures and all the problems the come up when trading commodity futures.
